Disclaimer: The information in this blog represents the opinions of its author and is for educational purposes only. It is not intended as investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are extremely risky so you should only invest money you are willing to lose.
There's a lot of talk about bitcoin's terrifyingly vertiginous level of volatility. But close mathematical scrutiny of the long-term uptrend reveals an astonishing number of predictable waves and bounces that offer high-probability, low-risk entry points for traders.
Here is the long-term view. From the low of $2975 on Sept. 15th to the high of $7898 after the SegWit2x hard fork was cancelled, bitcoin followed a series of Fibonacci waves with mostly shallow (38.2%) and some deep (50%-61.8%) retracements before resuming its powerful upward momentum.
Keep Calm In The Face of Sheer Panic
Both euphoria and panic set in after the recent kerfuffle over the failure to implement the block-doubling phase of SegWit. So we analyzed the post-SegWit panic with a long-term chart and concluded that a bounce near the 50% retracement zone, once confirmed by a series of higher lows would offer another low-risk entry point.
Vitriolic Onslaught? No Problem
This analysis was also strengthened by the fact that bitcoin's uptrend has shown remarkable resilience in the face of adversity, including the Chinese government crackdown and the near-continuous onslaught of vitriol from Wall Street.
In the short-term, bitcoin certainly appears volatile, even terrifyingly so. But if you step back and calmly examine the long term charts, you will see predictable patterns repeating themselves. This characteristic of bitcoin, along with its resilience and powerful upward momentum, give us confidence in our price projections of $8547 near-term, and $10,000 by year-end.